I want this blog to be a place I can post on meaningful and impactful changes in digital. This morning I watched a presentation on YouTube that seemed to encapsulate exactly that. This is not a new video, its two months old already but this is the first time I saw it.
The presentation is by Scott Galloway where he talks about his predictions for the future for Amazon, Google, Apple & Facebook. What does he know? Well, Scotts company (NYU Stern) has developed algorithms that look at 850 data points, across 11 geographies & 4 dimensions; site, digital marketing, social & mobile and then apply this against (just under) 1,300 brands. He dashes through the 90 slides in just over fifteen minutes…there is a lot of information in here but even Scott admits that even with all this data the predicted outcomes can be wrong. But it is a very interesting journey none the less.
An important takeaway statement for me was; pureplay ecommerce retailers will go out of business or open stores. Why? Scott presents these facts:
- Physical retailers are not sleeping – WalMart amongst others grew their ecommerce business 30% last year. This is more than Amazon for the same period.
- Click and collect – Two thirds of european shoppers used this service last year.
– Also, movement of stock between many store locations (using the store as the warehouse) means customers can get their product faster than a pureplay can deliver.
- The cost of ‘free’ delivery cannot scale – Amazon spent twice as much on free delivery transportation than it took in shipping fees. The costs are increasing 40% each year.
– Delivery disruption – Companies like Shutl or Uber could reduce delivery/shipping costs of products as they have done for the taxi business.
Food for thought. It will be interesting to see how many Amazon stores open in the coming twelve months. The rapid speed this and a whole lot more is raced through by Scott is mind-boggling. It can make you feel sick but if you are interested in these 4 companies (whose collective market capitalisation is more than the GDP of South Korea) and what the future may hold, you need to watch this video at least twice, at half speed.
Enjoy the future…